Result of Climate Change in South Asia

Climate change is no longer an issue for the distant future. Climate change is already taking place, and the South Asian countries, particularly the poorest people, are most at risk.The impacts of higher temperatures, more variable precipitation, more extreme weather events, and sea level rise are felt in South Asia and will continue to intensify.These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of South Asian countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people.The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms.

(Source: Managing Climate Risk: Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth Assessment report provided specific information for South Asia region concerning the nature of future impacts.

Some of the future impacts include,

•Glacier melting in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and will affect water resources within the next two to three decades.

• Climate change will compound the pressures on natural resources and the environment due to rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development.

• Crop yields could decrease up to 30% in South Asia by the mid-21st century.

• Mortality due to diarrhea primarily associated with floods and droughts will rise in South Asia.

• Sea-level rise will exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards.

Impact on South Asia’s poor

The consequences of such environmental changes include:

• decreased water availability and water quality in many arid and semiarid regions

• an increased risk of floods and droughts in many regions

• reduction in water regulation in mountain habitats

• decreases in reliability of hydropower and biomass production

• increased incidence of waterborne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and cholera

• increased damages and deaths caused by extreme weather events

• decreased agricultural productivity

• adverse impacts on fisheries

• adverse effects on many ecological systemsAs a result of these changes, climate change could hamper the

achievement of many of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), including those on poverty eradication, child mortality, malaria, and other diseases, and environmental sustainability.

Much of this damage would come in the form of severe economic shocks. In addition, the impacts of climate change will exacerbate existing social and environmental problems and lead to migration within and across national borders.

Climate Change in South Asia – A Conversation with Sir Nicholas Stern

From the Himalayas, which feed water to a billion people, to the coastal areas of Bangladesh, South Asian countries must prepare for the effects of global warming, even as they work to combat the human causes of climate change.

You have to give examples from around the world for people to really understand what’s going on. In India and China, I think people understand the rising water stress, and how vulnerable they are to melting glaciers and snows from the Himalayas,” Stern said. He used the analogy of the Himalayas as a sponge, moderating the impact of precipitation as seasons change.

”Precipitation comes, and it’s held there. That’s how you get water in the rivers. That effect will not be there if the glaciers and snow are not there. Which means you’ll get torrents during the wet season and dry rivers in the dry season. So you’ll get a combination of flood and drought,” Stern said.

“We also don’t know what effect that will have on the monsoon, and it could have quite a strong effect. That kind of thing is being studied now,” he added. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology supplies climate change data to SAARC nations, and is engaged in its largest recruitment drive in a decade.

Agriculture represents a fourth of India’s national income, and that sector could be seriously disrupted by changes to the monsoon. Mitigation strategies are needed to deal with the risks.

“We have to adapt how we handle water extraction, and irrigation. Water management is involved in all of this. Work has to be done on what crops would be resilient,” Stern said.

Urban areas throughout the region are also at risk, as water supplies could be disrupted over time. Infrastructure must be upgraded for sanitation and drinking water, as well as for adequate storm drainage in areas prone to flooding.