Result of Climate Change in South Asia

Climate change is no longer an issue for the distant future. Climate change is already taking place, and the South Asian countries, particularly the poorest people, are most at risk.The impacts of higher temperatures, more variable precipitation, more extreme weather events, and sea level rise are felt in South Asia and will continue to intensify.These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of South Asian countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people.The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms.

(Source: Managing Climate Risk: Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth Assessment report provided specific information for South Asia region concerning the nature of future impacts.

Some of the future impacts include,

•Glacier melting in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and will affect water resources within the next two to three decades.

• Climate change will compound the pressures on natural resources and the environment due to rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development.

• Crop yields could decrease up to 30% in South Asia by the mid-21st century.

• Mortality due to diarrhea primarily associated with floods and droughts will rise in South Asia.

• Sea-level rise will exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards.

Impact on South Asia’s poor

The consequences of such environmental changes include:

• decreased water availability and water quality in many arid and semiarid regions

• an increased risk of floods and droughts in many regions

• reduction in water regulation in mountain habitats

• decreases in reliability of hydropower and biomass production

• increased incidence of waterborne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and cholera

• increased damages and deaths caused by extreme weather events

• decreased agricultural productivity

• adverse impacts on fisheries

• adverse effects on many ecological systemsAs a result of these changes, climate change could hamper the

achievement of many of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), including those on poverty eradication, child mortality, malaria, and other diseases, and environmental sustainability.

Much of this damage would come in the form of severe economic shocks. In addition, the impacts of climate change will exacerbate existing social and environmental problems and lead to migration within and across national borders.

Climate Change in South Asia – A Conversation with Sir Nicholas Stern

From the Himalayas, which feed water to a billion people, to the coastal areas of Bangladesh, South Asian countries must prepare for the effects of global warming, even as they work to combat the human causes of climate change.

You have to give examples from around the world for people to really understand what’s going on. In India and China, I think people understand the rising water stress, and how vulnerable they are to melting glaciers and snows from the Himalayas,” Stern said. He used the analogy of the Himalayas as a sponge, moderating the impact of precipitation as seasons change.

”Precipitation comes, and it’s held there. That’s how you get water in the rivers. That effect will not be there if the glaciers and snow are not there. Which means you’ll get torrents during the wet season and dry rivers in the dry season. So you’ll get a combination of flood and drought,” Stern said.

“We also don’t know what effect that will have on the monsoon, and it could have quite a strong effect. That kind of thing is being studied now,” he added. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology supplies climate change data to SAARC nations, and is engaged in its largest recruitment drive in a decade.

Agriculture represents a fourth of India’s national income, and that sector could be seriously disrupted by changes to the monsoon. Mitigation strategies are needed to deal with the risks.

“We have to adapt how we handle water extraction, and irrigation. Water management is involved in all of this. Work has to be done on what crops would be resilient,” Stern said.

Urban areas throughout the region are also at risk, as water supplies could be disrupted over time. Infrastructure must be upgraded for sanitation and drinking water, as well as for adequate storm drainage in areas prone to flooding.

Population Statistics in Bangladesh

Population
133,376,684 (July 2002 est.)

Age structure
0-14 years: 33.8% (male 23,069,242; female 21,995,457)
15-64 years: 62.8% (male 42,924,778; female 40,873,077)
65 years and over: 3.4% (male 2,444,314; female 2,069,816) (2002 est.)

Population growth rate
1.59% (2002 est.)
Birth rate: 25.12 births/1,000 population (2002 est.)
Death rate: 8.47 deaths/1,000 population (2002 est.)
Net migration rate: -0.75 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2002 est.)

Sex Ratio
at birth: 1.06 male(s)/female.
under 15 years: 1.05 male(s)/female.
15-64 years: 1.05 male(s)/female.
65 years and over: 1.18 male(s)/female.
total population: 1.05 male(s)/female (2002 est.) .

Infant mortality rate
68.05 deaths/1,000 live births (2002 est.)

Life expectancy at birth
total population: 60.92 years.
male: 61.08 years
female: 60.74 years (2002 est.)

Total fertility rate
2.72 children born/woman (2002 est.)

Nationality
Bangladeshi

Ethnic groups
Bengali 98%, Biharis & tribals.

Religions
Muslim 88.3%, Hindu 10.5%, other 1.2% .

Languages
Bangla (official), English.

Literacy
definition: age 15 and over can read and write.
total population: 56%.
male : 63%.
female: 49% (2000 est.)

400 Years Of Dhaka

Dense, dirty, dying Dhaka
Once lovable city now subject to neglect

Lying on a bed at the labour unit of Dhaka Medical College Hospital (DMCH), Rita Begum is indeed very happy and proud. She has become mother of an angel like baby girl. The child is now safe under her mother's observant eyes. But how will she grow up in a city of pollution, over population and traffic mismanagement?Will this city be liveable by the time she herself becomes a mother? The answer is not unpredictable to urban researchers. Dhaka city, which was developed as an urban settlement centuries ago and turned into one of the fastest growing mega metropolises in the world, may not be liveable, the researchers fear.Once a city of gardens and mosques, which the rulers chose to make their capital, Dhaka is now gripped by a large base of increasing number of poor population.Every year the city is expanding on an average ratio of 3.1 percent. But infrastructures and environmental protection are not developing in a sustainable way, which makes the urban experts highly concerned."Within five years overall situation of the city would be in a very bad shape as the condition of environment is already very bad. The drainage system is worsening day by day and the government fails to introduce long-term transport system," said Prof Nazrul Islam, honorary chairman of Centre for Urban Studies.There is also not much hope in power, energy and water supply system as the government has yet to take any new initiatives to meet the ever-increasing demands.The surface water has been polluted severely; quality of air in and around the city is already in a bad shape. Every year groundwater level is receding fast due to over extraction. Demand for water, electricity, and gas is increasing every day.Every month around 3,000 new vehicles hit the road contributing to increasing air pollution and severe traffic congestion. This is also badly hampering the average speed of the vehicles.Different UN bodies have already projected in their reports last year that Dhaka is going to be the second most populated city by 2015, next to Tokyo, with a growth rate of urban population at 3.1 percent per year.Now the city is struggling to deal with many issues including population, infrastructure and environment management, traffic and transport management, social and utility services including electricity, gas, communications, water, health and education.

POPULATION

Since independence in 1971, population of Dhaka began to increase rapidly. In 1974 (no census occurred in 1971 due to the Liberation War) the population was recorded about 1.77 lakh.Today the population of Dhaka has exceeded 13 millions and is increasing at a rate of 3.1 percent every year.According to available records, the population of Dhaka city was 68,038 in 1838 as recorded by Bishop Heber. On the other hand, James Rennel, an East India Company officer, mentioned it to be 51,636 in 1867.Dhaka's position in terms of population in 2001 was eighth among the ten most densely populated cities. It is projected to be the second with about 2.11 crore population in 2015, a UN body estimates.Researchers believe migration contributes to at least 40 percent of Dhaka's population. Male population is much higher than female population -- now the male-female ratio is not less than 116:100.

POLLUTION

Water and air pollution has already become a very serious concern. Continuous media reports and pressures from the environmentalists forced the authorities to take some measures, which are not enough.Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Buet) has recently published a research. It says rivers around the city including the Buriganga, Turag, Balu and Tongi Khal are so polluted that no fish or other aquatic species can survive in their waters. During monsoon, some fish and other aquatic species are seen there but they disappear again as soon as the floodwater recedes. Indiscriminate discharging of industry waste, human excreta and household garbage led those rivers, canals, lakes and other water sources to severe pollution.

AIR POLLUTION

According to data from Air Quality Monitoring Project (AQMP), floating particles in city air both smaller (PM 2.5) and bigger (PM 10) are several times higher than the EPA (US Environment Protection Agency) standard. Experts from the Department of Environment say faulty vehicles, especially diesel-run ones, brick kilns, dust from roads and construction sites and toxic fumes from industries are the main sources of PM 10 and PM 2.5.

TRAFFIC AND TRANSPORT

Now the city has a hazardous, expensive and slow transport system. According to Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) sources, the city has only 7.9 percent road capacity against a standard 25 percent.The traffic and environment problems are going to be more chaotic in near future.Sources in Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA) say the total number of motorised vehicles in the city now stands at a staggering 1.05 million. These vehicles are crammed into some 220-kilometre road creating one of the highest traffic densities in the world. The sources add nearly three thousand new vehicles are now hitting the city every month.

URBAN PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

The city is being extended outward more than planning. The authorities are neither prepared nor seriously concerned about preparations for future. The Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha is still waiting to implement the master plan of 1995 which was also made under the guidelines of the 1959 master plan. The administration and management style is so outdated and corrupt that more than 80 percent of city buildings were constructed without appropriate planning. Experts say it is difficult to visualise how the authorities will mange a metropolis in future many folds bigger than what it is today. May be the authorities will take pride in a few enclaves, flyovers, high-rises, but the real problems are likely to remain unresolved or untouched.